Fast-growing fringe heralds lessons for future elections

Op Ed by PUCV Chair, Cr Moira Berry

The lessons of the Federal Election have been written, and from it a powerful new political force has emerged.

The peri urban region on the doorstep of Melbourne and Geelong are some of the fastest growing local government areas in the country, boosted by people looking to escape urban congestion in search of a more balanced lifestyle alternative.

These booming outer suburbs have changed not only the shape of our cities but also the shape of our Federal Parliament.  And yet, despite this new-found influence few pundits really understand the peri urban region or why it’s so important to our state.

In recent years, people have moved in droves to escape unaffordable city house prices and metro congestion, a trend that has been accelerated by COVID-19 and the new work from home culture, with migration from capital cities to regional areas increasing by over 16 per cent.

But for the peri urban region, this growth is not just a covid-induced phenomenon. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal that the population has been rising steadily for nearly 15 years.  Since 2007, the population of the peri urban council areas of Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Golden Plains, Moorabool and Surf Coast have been growing at the incredible annual rate of between 2 and 4 per cent year on year. Following this growth trajectory,  these council areas are projected to welcome an additional 100,000 people by 2036.

In contrast, the interface councils (Casey, Melton, Wyndham, Cardinia, Mitchell, Yarra Ranges, Hume, Mornington Peninsula, Nillumbik and Whittlesea) have seen population growth level off over the same 15 year period, proving that the peri urban region really is the new frontier.  In fact, over the past five years both regional Victoria and greater Melbourne have experienced an average annual population growth of around 1.5 per cent, less than half that experienced by the peri urban councils over the same period and completely dwarfed by the Surf Coast Council’s growth of 4.5 per cent.

Far from the perception of suburban sprawl, the peri urban region serves as both Melbourne’s food bowl and its playground.  The area currently provides approximately 41 percent of Melbourne’s food supply and hosts an estimated 6 million tourists per year based on pre-COVID-19 numbers.  Industries such as energy production, agriculture, tourism, food processing and extractive mining are thriving.

The fast-growing fringe is relevant to our policy makers not just because people are voting with their feet, but because it has emerged as a major economic and social force in our state.  The peri urban region is one that most Victorians have visited, considered relocating to, or eaten produce sourced from its farmlands.

But the growth has brought with it the inevitable squeeze on transport, housing, and important social services.  Residents rightfully expect a reasonable standard of digital connectivity to enable them to work from home, as well as civic and cultural infrastructure and road and rail networks that are not stuck playing catch up.  Business is demanding efficient freight connections so they can continue to grow and provide local employment opportunities.

These are the complex challenges that lie at the feet of the local councils, as they take on the growth burden for much of the state. A new regional policy agenda is in play and with it comes an opportunity to recognise the important niche assignment occupied by the peri urban councils.

The headwinds of change evident at the Federal Election will become stronger in years to come, as more people vote with their feet first, and then in the polling booth.